“The deeply depressed housing sector finally seems to have found its bottom — and may even be starting to bounce back. A wide range of housing indicators — construction, home sales, prices — have stabilized in the past few months, although they remain at historically very low levels. And it looks as if construction activity [...]
Read More →“SAN FRANCISCO — Walk through San Francisco’s bustling SoMa neighborhood and you’d be forgiven for thinking that the economic roller coaster of the last 12 years was nothing more than a bad dream. Both the dot com boom’s epic implosion and the misery of the Great Recession vanish behind a chattering group of enthusiastic engineers [...]
Read More →“After half a decade of withering sales and slumping prices, there are strong and diverse signs that the single-family housing market is poised for a rebound. In some metropolitan areas, the market has bottomed, with both sales and prices on the rise and foreclosures on the decline. This contrarian — and largely overlooked — thesis [...]
Read More →An article in today’s Chronicle, in conjunction with Bloomberg, while not particularly positive about near-future trends in US real estate, is much more positive regarding San Francisco. “Your best bets: a small handful of “property-wealth islands,” including San Francisco and San Jose/Silicon Valley, both seen as “primary 24-hour gateways located along global pathways,” according to [...]
Read More →click to enlarge In San Francisco, 3 big factors are impacting the Rent vs. Buy equation: the 15-25% decline in prices since 2008, fast rising rents, and incredibly low mortgage rates. This chart compares the median SF asking rent for a 1-BR apartment ($2650) to buying a median-priced, 2-BR condo in SoMa ($650,000). With 20% [...]
Read More →“According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the preliminary unemployment rate in San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont areas for September 2011 declined to 9.2 percent. And, based on the State’s Employment Development Department, the unemployment rate in San Francisco’s metropolitan area is currently at 8.7 percent, the lowest in California.” “The same panel of UCLA economists who [...]
Read More →Paragon YTD sales: Comparing MLS sales YTD 2011 with those of the same period in 2010, Paragon’s total dollar volume is up 32%, and our increase in percent market share is 27%. For houses, condos, co-ops and 2-4 unit buildings selling for $2,000,000 and above, our dollar volume is up 62% and our percent market [...]
Read More →click to enlarge San Francisco condos appreciated rapidly between 2000 and the peak value years of 2006-2008. (The spike actually began in 1996.) Then, after the 2008 market meltdown, median prices declined rapidly in these areas by 15–22%. Since 2009, they have either stabilized or fluctuated within a relatively narrow band. Small percentage changes in [...]
Read More →By Tara Tran • Jun 23rd, 2011 California’s big cities are projected to lead the way in the state’s job recovery and the Bay Area is forecasted to be the starting point for the state’s employment resurgence. The Silicon Valley boom is no small part of that push. However, a bifurcated recovery is expected throughout [...]
Read More →These are market dynamics charts for San Francisco houses, condos, co-ops, TICs and 2-4 unit buildings. They track weekly activity for the past 6 months through the week ending June 19, 2011. For activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics.
Read More →“Why It’s Time To Buy Back in June 2006, when the housing market peaked, the prospect of a five-year national housing bust seemed unimaginable to most people. And yet here we are, with the latest Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index showing that prices hit new bear-market lows, falling back to 2002 levels nationally and to [...]
Read More →Is It Strengthening or Declining? Some of our readers have been understandably confused between the bad news reported elsewhere and our recent reports of a strengthening market in San Francisco. Besides the possibility of specific agendas, there are some legitimate reasons behind the apparent disconnect:
Read More →Distress home sales – bank-owned properties and short sales – have a major impact on the overall median sales price in San Francisco, even though the city is much less impacted by such sales than the greater Bay Area or California. In actual numbers and as a percentage of sales, distress sales have been increasing [...]
Read More →“As the cold temperatures become a distant memory, and the spring selling season gains momentum, consumers have come to agree on one thing—now’s a good time to get off the fence and into the real estate market. This is the overall theme in the latest American Express Spending and Saving Tracker survey, a monthly survey [...]
Read More →Pending sales activity in the San Francisco housing market jumped 22 percent from November 2009 to 2010, according to the latest Market Focus report, published jointly by the Rosen Consulting Group and the San Francisco Association of REALTORS®.
Read More →San Francisco City Overview Alamo Square Anza Vista Bayview Bayview Heightsv Bernal Heights Buena Vista Park Central Waterfront Clarendon Heights Cole Valley Corona Heights Cow Hollow
Read More →Despite mostly negative reports from other parts of the country, the San Francisco home market has performed relatively well since the autumn market began after Labor Day. Indeed, the number of listings accepting offers in November was well above last year’s and the median home price is at its highest since the April tax-credit crush. [...]
Read More →Current Active REO listings for all districts except 3 & 10 (there are another 41 REO listings in 3 & 10). Besides the REOs listed below, there are 118 known Active short sale listings in the 8 districts. (Click to enlarge)
Read More →Buyer demand has been strong since the autumn sales season began in mid-September. Overall median home prices continue to remain stable – as they have for the past 12-16 months – jogging up and down within a narrow band of value. Inventory is about 12% higher than 1 year ago, but Months’ Supply of Inventory [...]
Read More →After a relatively slow summer, the number of new listings and accepted offers in San Francisco soared after Labor Day. Median prices remain stable; mortgage rates hit yet another low; and the Blue Angels returned. As usual, pundits are divided between this being the best time to buy a home in decades (a growing number) [...]
Read More →Robert Lenzner Forbes Magazine It could be time to sell your low-yielding bonds and replace them with higher-yielding common stocks. Multibillionaire hedge fund operator John Paulson, the investment genius who made a killing going short subprime mortgages a few years ago, told a standing room only crowd at New York’s University Club that double-digit inflation [...]
Read More →Once all the ratifications were entered into MLS, it turns out that the week ending September 19th was the 2nd most active in number of accepted offers in the last 6 months: 141 deals. (The only week with more ratifications was the last week of April during the tax credit crush.) We won’t have final [...]
Read More →Since there is a lot of uncertainty about what is going on in the market, here are updated Weekly charts through September 19th. Listings Accepting Offers by Week: Recovering — Increased Dramatically in 3rd Week of September from very slow Start 
Read More →Enough with the doom and gloom about homeownership. Brett Arends explains why owning a home is a good thing. Enough with the doom and gloom about homeownership. Sure, maybe there’s more pain to come in the housing market. But when Time magazine starts running covers that declare “Owning a home may no longer make economic [...]
Read More →“…the first full week unaffected by Labor Day – will be very interesting to see.” Here are weekly market activity charts through September 12th for houses, condos, TICs and 2-4 unit buildings. The charts go back 6 months. Listings Accepting Offers: even taking into account that the Labor Day holiday impacted both of the first [...]
Read More →Here are some quick updates regarding the sales of houses, condos, co-ops, TICs & 2-4 unit buildings. (Click on a chart to enlarge) Closed Sales: Closings in August were down 9% compared with August 2009, which is a bit odd since June & July’s number of accepted offers were relatively unchanged – down 1.6% — [...]
Read More →Low, High & Median Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot SF MLS Home Sales: February 15, 2010 – August 15, 2010 Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by “unusual” events in any particular period or by changes [...]
Read More →Late August 2010 Update In the past week or two, there have been hundreds of sky-is-falling articles in every major media outlet about how home sales drastically slumped in July when compared with June and May, or as compared to July of last year, both nationally and in the Bay Area. And that this indicates [...]
Read More →Week by Week Charts through August 15th, for the past 6 Months: SFD, Condo, TIC, 2-4 Unit Buildings Market trend charts that track by month and by quarter are more useful, but these weekly-bar charts are snapshots of most recent activity.
Read More →FHA LAUNCHES SHORT REFI OPPORTUNITY FOR UNDERWATER HOMEOWNERS Effort designed to encourage principal write-downs for responsible borrowers
Read More →Looking to invest in other markets? Let me help you find an agent. Vulture investors: They’re back – and making a bundle By Les Christie, staff writerAugust 5, 2010 NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — These are the glory days of the residential real estate investor. Low prices, rock-bottom interest rates and stable rental markets have created [...]
Read More →National average for a 30-year fixed loan is at 4.49 percent By ALAN ZIBEL Associated Press Mortgage rates dropped to the lowest level on record for the sixth time in seven weeks, offering the most attractive opportunity in decades for those who qualify to refinance or purchase a home.
Read More →Rosen Consulting Group Forecasts Overall Positive Year for San Francisco Housing Market
The reports are issued ahead of reports from CAR and NAR and, hopefully, will go a long way to dispelling the notion that the San Francisco residential real estate market is little different than other markets in the country experiencing stagnation and significant price declines.
Read More →These 3 charts show week by week activity for the past 6 months through July 11th . Obviously, the first two weeks of July were impacted by the 4th of July holiday slowdown, but it is interesting that a fair amount of inventory is coming on market – perhaps that is simply a reflection of agents holding listings until the holiday week was over. It does seem that opportunities for buyers must be increasing. The activity charts for the last 3 weeks of July will be interesting to see. Last year business didn’t really slow down during the summer, but perhaps this summer will be more typical?
Read More →Median prices and average dollar per square foot figures are generalities, which may be affected by other market factors besides changes in value. All information contained herein is derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and is not warranted. Sales not reported to MLS are not included in these analyses.
Read More →Buyer Use & Effectiveness by Media Type From the NAR 2009 Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers
Read More →Houses Accepting Offers (week by week chart): this market is holding up pretty well, climbing back to the average level of a strong spring season. (The last week of April was a blip caused by the expiring Federal tax credit.)
Read More →San Francisco Real Estate: June 2010 Update
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SF Homes Accepting Offers
The market cooled in May after the frantic rush to get offers accepted before April 30th so as to qualify for both the expiring Federal tax credit & the new California tax credit. That rush inflated April’s results and deflated May’s, but May 2010 was still 9% above May 2009. Last year, the market did not slow appreciably — as is typical — during the summer months. We’ll see what happens in the summer of 2010.
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Inventory Absorption
This chart reflects a market that is cooling a little from the frenzy of April: both accepted offers and new listings are down a little; and residual inventory is up a little (but still lower than most of the past year). Residual inventory reflects listings that were active (available) on the last day of the month, but listed prior to the first day of the same month, i.e. listings from prior months that have not yet accepted offers.
Spring 2010 Home Sales at Selected Price Points
For $13,500,000
Pacific Heights on Broadway: 4 BR, 6 BA, 4-story mansion; GG bridge and bay views, elevator, 4 fireplaces, spa, garden, terraces, loggia, “unparalleled technology,” LEED energy certification, 2 car pkg.
For $3,000,000 to $6,550,000
$6,550,000: Pacific Hghts on Broadway: 7 BR, 5.5 BA, 1900 Victorian; GG & bay views from every level; south garden, elevator, 2 decks, 4 car pkg.
$5,600,000: Pacific Hghts on Steiner: 4 BR, 2.5 BA, 4-story, 5300 sq.ft. 1930 SFD (house); GG & bay views, au pair, 2 car pkg. $1057/sq.ft.
$4,440,000: Presidio Hghts on Clay: 4 BR, 3.5 BA, 12-room, 5150 sq.ft. 1910 Edwardian; media rm, gym, 1 pkg. $862/sq.ft.
$4,100,000: Russian Hill on Lombard: 3 BR, 2.5 BA, Spanish-Med SFD; GG & city views, 1 pkg.
$3,940,000: Sea Cliff on Lake: 4 BR, 4.5 BA, 5370 sq.ft. 1925 brick-front Colonial; GG & North Bay views, elevator, guest suite, library, 2 pkg. $734/sq.ft.
$3,600,000: Pacific Hghts on Pacific: 2 BR, 3 BA, 2714 sq.ft. 1924 penthouse; bridge to bridge views, terrace, solarium, 1 pkg. $1326/sq.ft.
$3,350,000: Noe Valley on 23rd: 4 BR, 3.5 BA, 1900 Shingle Victorian; bay and hills view, 2 pkg.
$3,100,000: Russian Hill on North Point: 3 BR, 2 BA, 2554 sq.ft. 1907 condo; stunning views, 3 decks, 2 pkg. $1214/sq.ft.
For about $2,000,000
Hayes Valley on Waller: 5 BR, 2.5 BA, 4-flr Victorian; deck, garden, full attic, 2 pkg.
Corona Heights: 4 BR, 3 BA, 2810 sq.ft. contemp. Edwardian; energy efficient, 2 pkg. $721/sq.ft.
Presidio Heights: 4 BR, 2 BA, 2289 sq.ft. 1911 top-flr condo; GG views, deck, pkg. $852/sq.ft.
Ashbury Hghts on Belvedere: 4 BR, 1.5 BA, 2680 sq.ft. 1906 Edwardian; elevator, pkg. $772/sq.ft.
Eureka Vly on Eureka: 3 BR, 3.5 BA, 2480 sq.ft. 2002 SFD; deck, solar panels, 2 pkg. $766/sq.ft.
Marina on Bay: 3 BR, 3 BA, 2415 sq.ft. 1929, 2-story Spanish-Med SFD; garden, 2 pkg. $821/sq.ft.
For about $1,500,000
Read More →May 2010 Market Charts Analysis
Statistics are typically broad-brush generalities and are subject to fluctuations due to a variety of reasons. Median prices in particular may be affected by other market factors besides changes in value. All information contained herein is derived from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and is not warranted. Sales not reported to MLS are not included in these analyses.
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SF Homes Accepting Offers
The number of homes accepting offers in April 2010 continued to climb: 46% higher than one year ago; 33% higher than 2 years ago. It was the highest monthly total in years.
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April Snapshot
An overview of new listings, accepted offers, closed sales, price reductions, listings expired or withdrawn (without selling), and listings that came back on market (expired/ withdrawn listings that were re-listed, and accepted offers that fell through). The number of closed sales mostly reflects accepted-offer activity in February and March, which is the main reason for the discrepancy between the quantity of accepted offers and closed sales in April — the other reason being deals that fall through after offer acceptance. (Deals typically fail due to either financing or inspection issues.) Price reduction and back-on-market data are approximations. A single property can be included in more than one category within the same month.
Per hotsheet statistics since April 16th: 587 new listings, 102 back on market, 310 price reductions, 321 went contingent, 326 went pending and 159 expired/withdrawn.
And here are the active REO listings for all districts except 3 & 10:
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Read More →For all districts except 3 & 10. There have to be some good deals in here.
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More charts after the break…
Read More →There is an an excellent article in the SF Business Times about the rebound in the condo market. Here is the Socketsite coverage of the article that has links to further articles.
via socketsite.com
Sales office stats by way of the San Francisco Business Times for a few of the smaller new condo developments about town:
∙ 555 Bartlett: 31 (including 9 BMR) of 46 units in contract
∙ 829 Folsom: 19 of 69 units in contract
∙ LindenHayes: 21 of 31 units in contract
∙ Union: 64 of 76 units in contract or closed
“Pricing of these projects is a good 25 to 30 percent below the peak of the last cycle with prices hovering in the $600 to $750 a square foot range now. Buyers are bargaining hard while developers are lucky to recoup their equity or eke out a slim profit.”
Read More →
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