Market Conditions

  • Marin County Home Prices & Market Trends

    2017 has been a high demand, low supply market in Marin and throughout the Bay Area, with median sales price increases pretty much across the board. As mentioned in earlier reports, the greatest pressure of buyer demand has generally been focused on the more affordable market segments, as defined within each overall county market. The …

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  • Marin Real Estate Report – October 2017

    Before talking about real estate, which does not seem very important in light of the terrible fires in the wine country, here are a number of ways to help, if you wish to do so. It is not a complete list. Donate to Red Cross Airbnb Open Homes Program Napa County Disaster Relief Go Fund …

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  • Another Hot Autumn RE Market?

    After the usual late summer slowdown, the typically very active autumn selling season is relatively short, running from mid-September until mid-November, when activity begins to plunge for the mid-winter holidays. The coming two months will be the next major indicator: Will the Marin homes market continue to maintain the intense high-demand, low-supply heat of this …

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  • 1000+ Things to Do and Enjoy in Marin & the Wine Country

    Out of town guests are arriving, the kids are hungry, the dog is restless, or you are just lying on the couch hoping for something to motivate you to get up and out of the house. Food, drink, music, dance, yoga, biking, hiking, weekend getaways, meditation retreats, and things to do with visitors, children and …

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  • Marin County Real Estate – The Paragon Mid-Year Report

    After another feverish spring market, the Marin County median house price hit a new quarterly peak in Q2 2017, $82,000 above the high hit in Q2 2016. This dynamic was prevalent around the Bay Area. And as illustrated in the chart below, luxury home sales also hit a new peak, rising 17% above the number …

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  • Feverish Spring Markets Prevail In Marin & Around The Bay Area

    This chart below compares median house sales prices since 2012 for March through May sales, year-over-year, for Marin, San Francisco and Sonoma Counties. Marin median prices are illustrated by the dark gray columns. Like Marin, most Bay Area Counties hit new peaks in median sales prices this spring, often by significant margins. Year-over-Year 3-Month Median Sales …

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  • Marin Real Estate – High Demand, Low Supply Continues – Paragon Report

    By quantity, home sales in Marin are dominated by Novato, San Rafael and Mill Valley, while the highest median sales prices are typically found in smaller towns. Median sales price is that price at which half the sales sold for more and half for less. It can be and often is affected by factors besides …

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  • Marin County Real Estate: Preliminary Indications of Direction for the 2017 Market

    Q1 is the quarter of the year with the least number of closed sales, so too much should not be made of its data, but we have summarized annual Q1 dynamics for the past 4 years in the 2 charts above. In the general residential market (chart 1), the inventory of listings available to buy …

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  • New Case-Shiller: Bay Area Home Prices Tick Up a Little

    After the feverish spring 2014 market, home prices in the high-price tier – which applies best to San Francisco and Marin counties – flattened and then ticked down a little, while more affordable home segments continued to tick up: It’s not unusual for the market to cool off and plateau during the summer months. The […]

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  • San Francisco New Construction/Development Report

    Highlights from the Q3 2014 Pipeline Report by the SF Planning Department December 2014, compiled by Paragon Real Estate Group On December 19th, the San Francisco Planning Department issued its excellent Q3 2014 Pipeline Report, which tracks new residential and commercial development in the city. There is a wealth of data within its 36 pages: Below […]

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  • New Case-Shiller Index Report

    The Case-Shiller Index for September was released today. Note that it will mostly reflect sales negotiated in August or before, during the slower summer sales season. (The next Index, published in late December, will begin to reflect transactions negotiated in September and the start of the autumn sales season.) These 2 charts pertain to the […]

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  • August Case-Shiller Index Report

    The August Case-Shiller Index report released today showed a small home price decline for the 5 counties of the SF Metro Area. Autumn’s numbers will give us a clearer indication as to whether this is the beginning of a flattening or declining price trend or simply the not untypical indication of a summer adjustment from […]

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  • 3rd Quarter 2014 Market Report

    San Francisco House & Condo Values Which Neighborhoods Dominate Home Sales? Who Is Buying the City’s Luxury Condos and Why? September saw the largest surge of new listings coming on market in the past 2 years, which led to a big jump in deal-making, but data on transactions negotiated in September won’t be available until […]

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  • Freshly updated map of what’s going up around town

    Interested in what’s happening with new developments in San Francisco? Click the link below to view the interactive map… Source :

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  • Case-Shiller sees small drop in Bay Area home prices in July – 3 charts included

    The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July 2014 was released today, and indicated a small – less than 1% – dip in high-price-tier houses. (The Case-Shiller aggregate Index for all Bay Area home price tiers dropped even less, about 4 tenths of a percent.) For the past 3 years, home prices have surged in […]

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  • New Case-Shiller report: new jump in Bay Area home prices

    The new S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for April 2014 came out today and it showed another bump in home prices for the 5-county San Francisco Metro Statistical Area. For homes in the upper tier of home values – as … Continue reading

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  • New Case Shiller Index

    The new February S&P Case-Shiller Index for high-price-tier homes in the 5-county San Francisco Metro Area increased almost 1% from the January reading. This puts the Index up about 20% over the past 12 months, and up about 34% since the recovery began in earnest in early 2012. Based upon what we are seeing in the market, I expect another increase in the March Index. (The Case-Shiller Index is published 2 months after the month specified.)

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  • New Case-Shiller report: SF Metro Area bumps up again

    While the nation as a whole saw a tiny decrease in the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price index in the January report released today, the San Francisco Metro Area Index (for 5 northern counties) bumped up again. The C-S Index for higher priced houses has now completely re-attained the previous market peak set in 2006, as measured by January data points. The city of San Francisco itself has exceeded the rise in the 5-county area and has generally surpassed previous peak values – many SF neighborhoods by substantial margins.

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  • Updated SoMa Charts

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  • Snapshot: Russian, Nob & Telegraph Hills & North Beach

    Earlier this week, San Francisco was named the third least affordable major metropolitan area, behind only Vancouver and Hong Kong, according the globe Annual Demographia Housing Affordability Survey of 360 housing markets worldwide. Our market snapshot of Russian, Nob & Telegraph Hills and North Beach support that with the median sales price for a condo in Russian […]

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  • Charts: Lake Street, Richmond, Sunset-Parkside, GG Heights

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  • Market Snapshot: Pacific & Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow & The Marina

    Here’s a look at the average sales price, dollar per square foot and median house sales price beginning in 1995. Last year we saw records highs in all three categories, take a look:   Source :

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  • What SF Homebuyers Bought in 2013: A Survey

    Penthouses, Mansions, Short Sales & Fixer-Uppers What Did San Francisco Homebuyers Buy in 2013? Views, prices, architecture, neighborhoods, property types and sizes, parking, probate sales and appreciation rates: We data-mined all of San Francisco’s 2013 sales reported to MLS through the end of November and charted the results below.   Sales as described in and […]

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  • A changing market? Have SF home prices reached a plateau?

    The market usually does slow down at least a little in mid-summer – a question has come up: is this possible slowdown caused by listing agents continually pushing the envelope on pricing for new listings or pricing to the last, highest, frenzied sale, a move that buyers are now finally starting to resist? It may […]

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  • San Francisco Luxury Home Sales Soar in 2013

    San Francisco Luxury Home Sales Soar 2nd Quarter 2013 Update In San Francisco, no market segment has recovered as dramatically as that for high-end homes. There are a number of reasons for this: the general economic recovery, the huge local increase in high-tech wealth, an increase in the number of highly affluent foreign buyers, and […]

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  • Interest Rates: Is the Sky Falling on the Housing Market?

    The pundits are making dramatic, even doom-laden pronouncements about what is going to happen with interest rates (and the housing market), though they’ve been wrong so many times over the past few years, these “expert” predictions might be taken with salt-shaker’s worth of salt, perhaps with lemon and a nice shot of tequila. Obviously, interest […]

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  • The Economist on Bubbles — Neat Interactive Chart Feature

    The Economist has a good article (about the US real estate market not being in a bubble) and created a terrific interactive graph that allows you, by metro area (you have to click on San Francisco to add it to the graph), to compare home price changes in real terms over time, versus average incomes, […]

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  • Bay Area sees patchwork recovery from housing crash

    “According to an analysis by this newspaper of home values by ZIP code, with higher priced homes, such as the core of Silicon Valley and parts of San Francisco, have recovered much of the home equity lost in the crash. The data is for all types of homes: single-family, condos and townhouses. But neighborhoods with […]

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  • Bay Area Home Prices Projected to Surge

    “Looking at 245 Bay Area ZIP codes, Zillow projects that 244 will see home values ratchet up by significant margins in 2013, with 27 ZIPs seeing double-digit appreciation…Popular San Francisco neighborhoods such as Noe Valley, the Castro, Twin Peaks, the Mission and Bernal Heights are poised for double-digit appreciation, along with Menlo Park, Larkspur, Palo […]

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  • NYTimes Article: In San Francisco, Glass-and-Steel Condos Rising by the Bay

    Darcy Padilla for The New York Times ROUGHLY two decades ago, during an earlier Internet start-up boom, many entrepreneurs and fast-typing coders and engineers set up shop in a still-gritty area of this city: South of Market Street. The young tech crowd rented — and sometimes bought — in commercial buildings in this former warehouse […]

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  • SF rated #1 for real estate investment, development and home building in 2013

    “San Francisco was rated first for investment, development and home building in the 2013 “Emerging Trends in Real Estate” report by the Urban Land Institute and PwC. The report says: “In 2013, San Francisco steals the triple crown from Washington, D.C., receiving top billing in the Emerging Trends investment, development, and housing categories. ‘San Francisco […]

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  • Is housing bouncing back?

    “The deeply depressed housing sector finally seems to have found its bottom — and may even be starting to bounce back. A wide range of housing indicators — construction, home sales, prices — have stabilized in the past few months, although they remain at historically very low levels. And it looks as if construction activity […]

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  • Social Media Fuels SoMa Rental Boom — But Will It Be San Francisco’s Next Big Real Estate Bubble?

    “SAN FRANCISCO — Walk through San Francisco’s bustling SoMa neighborhood and you’d be forgiven for thinking that the economic roller coaster of the last 12 years was nothing more than a bad dream. Both the dot com boom’s epic implosion and the misery of the Great Recession vanish behind a chattering group of enthusiastic engineers […]

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  • Residential Housing Ready to Awaken

    “After half a decade of withering sales and slumping prices, there are strong and diverse signs that the single-family housing market is poised for a rebound. In some metropolitan areas, the market has bottomed, with both sales and prices on the rise and foreclosures on the decline. This contrarian — and largely overlooked — thesis […]

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  • Positive Reports on SF

    An article in today’s Chronicle, in conjunction with Bloomberg, while not particularly positive about near-future trends in US real estate, is much more positive regarding San Francisco. “Your best bets: a small handful of “property-wealth islands,” including San Francisco and San Jose/Silicon Valley, both seen as “primary 24-hour gateways located along global pathways,” according to […]

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  • It’s all happening in the city, eventually

    By Tara Tran • Jun 23rd, 2011 California’s big cities are projected to lead the way in the state’s job recovery and the Bay Area is forecasted to be the starting point for the state’s employment resurgence. The Silicon Valley boom is no small part of that push. However, a bifurcated recovery is expected throughout […]

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  • Why It’s Time To Buy

    “Why It’s Time To Buy Back in June 2006, when the housing market peaked, the prospect of a five-year national housing bust seemed unimaginable to most people. And yet here we are, with the latest Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index showing that prices hit new bear-market lows, falling back to 2002 levels nationally and to […]

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  • Buyer’s Market Spurs Confidence in Young Professionals and Affluent Homeowners

    “As the cold temperatures become a distant memory, and the spring selling season gains momentum, consumers have come to agree on one thing—now’s a good time to get off the fence and into the real estate market. This is the overall theme in the latest American Express Spending and Saving Tracker survey, a monthly survey […]

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  • Robust Pending Sales Activity Presages a Stronger Housing Market for San Francisco

    Pending sales activity in the San Francisco housing market jumped 22 percent from November 2009 to 2010, according to the latest Market Focus report, published jointly by the Rosen Consulting Group and the San Francisco Association of REALTORS®.

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  • The Market – By Neighborhood

    San Francisco City Overview Alamo Square Anza Vista Bayview Bayview Heightsv Bernal Heights Buena Vista Park Central Waterfront Clarendon Heights Cole Valley Corona Heights Cow Hollow

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  • The San Francisco Real Estate Market: December 2010 Update

    Despite mostly negative reports from other parts of the country, the San Francisco home market has performed relatively well since the autumn market began after Labor Day. Indeed, the number of listings accepting offers in November was well above last year’s and the median home price is at its highest since the April tax-credit crush. […]

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  • Giant Demand in “Giants'” Town

    Buyer demand has been strong since the autumn sales season began in mid-September. Overall median home prices continue to remain stable – as they have for the past 12-16 months – jogging up and down within a narrow band of value. Inventory is about 12% higher than 1 year ago, but Months’ Supply of Inventory […]

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  • The San Francisco Real Estate Market in Autumn: October 2010 Market Update

    After a relatively slow summer, the number of new listings and accepted offers in San Francisco soared after Labor Day. Median prices remain stable; mortgage rates hit yet another low; and the Blue Angels returned. As usual, pundits are divided between this being the best time to buy a home in decades (a growing number) […]

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  • John Paulson: Sell Bonds; Buy Stocks; Double Digit Inflation Coming

    Robert Lenzner Forbes Magazine It could be time to sell your low-yielding bonds and replace them with higher-yielding common stocks. Multibillionaire hedge fund operator John Paulson, the investment genius who made a killing going short subprime mortgages a few years ago, told a standing room only crowd at New York’s University Club that double-digit inflation […]

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  • Deal are being made! New ratifications are up!

    Once all the ratifications were entered into MLS, it turns out that the week ending September 19th was the 2nd most active in number of accepted offers in the last 6 months: 141 deals. (The only week with more ratifications was the last week of April during the tax credit crush.) We won’t have final […]

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  • WSJ: 10 Reasons to buy a Home

    Enough with the doom and gloom about homeownership. Brett Arends explains why owning a home is a good thing. Enough with the doom and gloom about homeownership. Sure, maybe there’s more pain to come in the housing market. But when Time magazine starts running covers that declare “Owning a home may no longer make economic […]

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  • What Costs How Much…and Where

    Low, High & Median Sales Prices & Average Dollar per Square Foot SF MLS Home Sales: February 15, 2010 – August 15, 2010 Median Sales Price is that price at which half the properties sold for more and half for less. It may be affected by “unusual” events in any particular period or by changes […]

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  • The Sky is Not Falling in San Francisco

    Late August 2010 Update In the past week or two, there have been hundreds of sky-is-falling articles in every major media outlet about how home sales drastically slumped in July when compared with June and May, or as compared to July of last year, both nationally and in the Bay Area. And that this indicates […]

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  • Underwater? FHA Refinance Program

    FHA LAUNCHES SHORT REFI OPPORTUNITY FOR UNDERWATER HOMEOWNERS Effort designed to encourage principal write-downs for responsible borrowers

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  • Fascinating Article on Investment Properties

    Looking to invest in other markets? Let me help you find an agent. Vulture investors: They’re back – and making a bundle By Les Christie, staff writerAugust 5, 2010 NEW YORK ( — These are the glory days of the residential real estate investor. Low prices, rock-bottom interest rates and stable rental markets have created […]

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  • Mortgage rates drop to new low

    National average for a 30-year fixed loan is at 4.49 percent By ALAN ZIBEL Associated Press Mortgage rates dropped to the lowest level on record for the sixth time in seven weeks, offering the most attractive opportunity in decades for those who qualify to refinance or purchase a home.

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  • Rosen Consulting Group Forecasts Overall Positive Year for San Francisco Housing Market

    Rosen Consulting Group Forecasts Overall Positive Year for San Francisco Housing Market

    The reports are issued ahead of reports from CAR and NAR and, hopefully, will go a long way to dispelling the notion that the San Francisco residential real estate market is little different than other markets in the country experiencing stagnation and significant price declines.

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  • What You Get for How Much Where in San Francisco

    Spring 2010 Home Sales at Selected Price Points

    For $13,500,000

    Pacific Heights on Broadway: 4 BR, 6 BA, 4-story mansion; GG bridge and bay views, elevator, 4 fireplaces, spa, garden, terraces, loggia, “unparalleled technology,” LEED energy certification, 2 car pkg.

    For $3,000,000 to $6,550,000

    $6,550,000: Pacific Hghts on Broadway: 7 BR, 5.5 BA, 1900 Victorian; GG & bay views from every level; south garden, elevator, 2 decks, 4 car pkg.
    $5,600,000: Pacific Hghts on Steiner: 4 BR, 2.5 BA, 4-story, 5300 sq.ft. 1930 SFD (house); GG & bay views, au pair, 2 car pkg. $1057/sq.ft.
    $4,440,000: Presidio Hghts on Clay: 4 BR, 3.5 BA, 12-room, 5150 sq.ft. 1910 Edwardian; media rm, gym, 1 pkg. $862/sq.ft.
    $4,100,000: Russian Hill on Lombard: 3 BR, 2.5 BA, Spanish-Med SFD; GG & city views, 1 pkg.
    $3,940,000: Sea Cliff on Lake: 4 BR, 4.5 BA, 5370 sq.ft. 1925 brick-front Colonial; GG & North Bay views, elevator, guest suite, library, 2 pkg. $734/sq.ft.
    $3,600,000: Pacific Hghts on Pacific: 2 BR, 3 BA, 2714 sq.ft. 1924 penthouse; bridge to bridge views, terrace, solarium, 1 pkg. $1326/sq.ft.
    $3,350,000: Noe Valley on 23rd: 4 BR, 3.5 BA, 1900 Shingle Victorian; bay and hills view, 2 pkg.
    $3,100,000: Russian Hill on North Point: 3 BR, 2 BA, 2554 sq.ft. 1907 condo; stunning views, 3 decks, 2 pkg. $1214/sq.ft.

    For about $2,000,000

    Hayes Valley on Waller: 5 BR, 2.5 BA, 4-flr Victorian; deck, garden, full attic, 2 pkg.
    Corona Heights: 4 BR, 3 BA, 2810 sq.ft. contemp. Edwardian; energy efficient, 2 pkg. $721/sq.ft.
    Presidio Heights: 4 BR, 2 BA, 2289 sq.ft. 1911 top-flr condo; GG views, deck, pkg. $852/sq.ft.
    Ashbury Hghts on Belvedere: 4 BR, 1.5 BA, 2680 sq.ft. 1906 Edwardian; elevator, pkg. $772/sq.ft.
    Eureka Vly on Eureka: 3 BR, 3.5 BA, 2480 sq.ft. 2002 SFD; deck, solar panels, 2 pkg. $766/sq.ft.
    Marina on Bay: 3 BR, 3 BA, 2415 sq.ft. 1929, 2-story Spanish-Med SFD; garden, 2 pkg. $821/sq.ft.

    For about $1,500,000

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  • Condo Rebound

    There is an an excellent article in the SF Business Times about the rebound in the condo market. Here is the Socketsite coverage of the article that has links to further articles.

    Sales Office Stats: 555 Bartlett, 829 Folsom, LindenHayes, And Union


    Sales office stats by way of the San Francisco Business Times for a few of the smaller new condo developments about town:

    555 Bartlett: 31 (including 9 BMR) of 46 units in contract

    829 Folsom: 19 of 69 units in contract
    LindenHayes: 21 of 31 units in contract
    Union: 64 of 76 units in contract or closed

    “Pricing of these projects is a good 25 to 30 percent below the peak of the last cycle with prices hovering in the $600 to $750 a square foot range now. Buyers are bargaining hard while developers are lucky to recoup their equity or eke out a slim profit.”

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